This summer's temperature 65.5 is the lowest during the eight year period, and from the relation found to hold on the average between temperature departures and rainfall an increase of about 5 inches above the eight year average rainfall was computed for the 1924-1925 season. The phenomena considered here are exceedingly complex, involve regions and masses of very great magnitudes, and the observations are comparatively very meagre. Moreover the investigation is in a prelimi nary experimental stage. Accordingly use of a single factor for forecasting can not be expetced to yield results comparable in certainty to astronomical predictions. The method may provide a forecast that holds, on the average as regards wet or dry seasons. Moreover, little significance can be attached to precise numerical values obtained from the aver age relations between the temperature and rainfall departures. The seasonal rainfall of California does not vary consistently in differ ent sections of the state. One section may show a decrease and another an increase during a given year. Therefore any forecast worked out for a limited area can not, in general, be extended to other parts. The distribution of rainfall throughout the year is of special economic interest, but no index of its distribution, whether the season will be late or early, for example, has been found. Scripps Institution, La Jolla, California, October 15, 1924. The Relation of Seasonal Rainfall in Southern California to Surface Indicated Rainfall for the 1924-25 Season. Explanation of the Diagram The heavy horizontal dashed line represents the average of the observed seasonal rainfall at six selected stations from San Diego to Los Angeles for the eight year period, 1916-23. The dashed line - represents the observed seasonal rainfall for the seasons 1916-17, 1917-18, etc., to 1923-24, in inches, plotted according to the scale entered at the right. The full line represents the minus temperature departure during each summer from the average for the eight summers not including 1924. It is simply the graph of (T-67.8) referred to the horizontal dashed line, and corresponds to the scale on the left. T is the ocean surface temperature at the Scripps Institution pier for the interval from Aug. 1 to Oct. 15 in the year 1916, 1917, etc., to 1924, and 67.8 is the average of the values of T. Thus the full line rises and falls as the temperature falls and rises, and approximates to the dashed line representing the rainfall for the following season. If the relation thus indicated continues to hold, the 1924-25 seasonal rainfall will be about 17 inches, or 5 inches above the average for the last eight years. GULF OF MEXICO WARM IN AUGUST The sea surface temperatures observed by a number of ships in the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream in August, 1924, averaged about 87°F., or some 3 to 4 deegrees F. above the average for 1906-1910. The latter half of the month was the warmer, averages for some portions being above 88°F. Observations of 90°F. were numerous. On a trip from New York to Trinidad and return in late August and mid-September the water temperatures taken by Dr. P. E. James in the Bahamas Current and the Equatorial Current entering the Caribbean Sea were generally 80-84, or about 1 degree above the average. It is difficult not to associate these supernormal temperatures with the strong Azores High of this summer, which from June to August presumably made the trade winds of greater strength than usual and so pushed the warmed surface waters more rapidly than usual into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Furthermore, it seems reasonable to ascribe some of the considerable cyclone activity in the West Indian Region in August, September and October to the warm and moist air that must have attended these high water temperatures. Until observations are mapped it will not be possible to say whether or not the great storminess near Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in September and October had any connection with the unusually warm Gulf Stream water starting in that direction in August.—Charles F. Brooks. THE YEAR WITHOUT A SUMMER, 1816, AND THE WARM WINTER OF 1815-1816 Assuming that the deficit in solar radiation observed at Mount Harqua Hala, Arizona, and Montezuma, Chili, by the Smithsonian Institution, is a real solar phenomenon and not due, even in part, to differences in atmospheric transmission, there has been much speculation as to what the effect will be on the weather of 1924, 1925 and 1926. In this connection the "year without a summer, 1816,” has received frequent mention. In a recent number of the Scientific American1 appears a definite prediction that the year 1925 will be a severe one generally throughout the world, and that 1926-1927 may "witness a return of 1816." But those who speak of the cold summer of 1816, or attempt to explain it, invariably sidestep or overlook the fact that the winter that preceded it was unusually warm. Stated in meteorological terms and for the northeastern portion of the United States, barometric contrasts and intensities were materially diminished during the winter and materially increased during the summer. There was thus a reversal of usual conditions rather than an intensification of those that are normal. Any theory of causation should be able to account for this, and any prediction of a recurrence should be based upon such adequate theory. The following are some of the authentic statements in regard to the winter of 1815-1816 in the northeast portion of the United States. 1. "December, 1815, and January, 1816, were very warm, indeed so mild that fires were seldom lighted in our rooms. February was also as mild as springtime, with the exception of one or two cold days. March was cold and boisterous the first half, and then mild to the middle of April, when winter set in with ice and deep snows, which continued until June.” 2. "January was so mild that most persons allowed their fires to go out, and did not burn wood except for cooking. There were a few cold days, but they were very few. Most of the time the air was warm and springlike. February was not cold. Some days were colder than any in January, but the weather was about the same. March, from the 1st to the 6th, was inclined to be windy. It came in like a small lion and went out like a very innocent sheep. April came in warm, but as the days grew longer the air became colder, and by the first of May there was a temperature like that of winter, with plenty of snow and ice." "January and February of 1816 were warm and springlike. March was cold and stormy. Vegetation had gotten well along in April when real winter weather set in." 3. L 4. "The spring of 1816 opened with as fair prospects as have ever appeared at the same season since. But the sunshine of the year's morn was followed by a long night of black despair. Snow commenced falling in June." 2 THE It is interesting to note that the cold summer of 1842 was also preceded by a mild winter.-John R. Weeks. 1 Scientific American, 1924, page 83. THE COMING WASHINGTON MEETING The fifteenth meeting of the Society will be held at the Central Office of the Weather Bureau, Washington D. C., Wednesday, Dec. 31, Annual Business Meeting. Friday and Saturday, Jan. 2 and 3, Sessions for Special Papers. A program already containing nineteen papers has been arranged and will be published in the next issue of the BULLETIN. Titles of any other papers should be sent to the Secretary at once. There will be a symposium on aerology. Nominations for President, Vice-President, Secretary, Treasurer and five councillors should be sent to the Secretary as soon as possible. Rules governing nominations and a list of the Fellows was published in the BULLETIN for October, 1922. ANNUAL CONVENTION OF THE NATIONAL AERONAUTIC ASSOCIATION The second annual convention of the National Aeronautic Association was held at Dayton, Ohio, October 2-4, 1924. The proceedings of this convention will be published in the National Aeronautic Association Review, but it will interest members of the Society who do not have access to that publication to learn that a resolution was passed, expressing admiration for Dr. Meisinger and his work; deploring his untimely death; endorsing the action of the Society in undertaking to raise an endowment fund for the continuation of the type of research in which he was engaged; and urging its own members to support that action by contributing to the Fund. Many of the members present expressed keen interest in this movement and pledged their support. The N. A. A., as the Association is frequently called, was organized in 1922. Its motto is "America First in the Air." It endeavors to carry out the purpose expressed in this motto chiefly in two ways: (1) By keeping closely in touch with aeronautic activities, both governmental and commercial, and assisting in co-ordinating those activities; and (2) by building up a large membership, well distributed over the country, and through that membership making the public acquainted with the present status and needs of aviation. At the Dayton convention it was apparent that real progress is being made along these lines. The Association is growing in numbers, and the membership is slowly but surely getting the message before the people. When this is done, when the public fully understands the importance of aviation in the commercial and economic life of the nation, then will there no longer be delay in its proper development.-W. R. Gregg. Meisinger Aerological Research Fund Contributions and pledges from members of the American Meteorological Society to the Meisinger Aerological Research Fund totalled $552.60 at the end of September, the month when the opportunity to subscribe was opened. Weather and the Airplane Dispatcher Captain B. J. Sherry, while Meteorological Control Officer, Bolling Field, D. C., wrote as follows concerning the meteorological work in the Army, which is very practical, since it must give immediate returns for any help it gets: The service on the Airway is running nicely. For the first 6 hours of daylight observations are made daily practically every hour. The results of these observations are made known immediately to all stations on the Airway. The airplane pilot, when he gets ready to fly from Washington to Dayton, for example, wants to know actual weather conditions along his route at the time he "takes off." All planes leaving Bolling Field for cross-country journeys are practically "cleared" by the meteorological office before they are allowed to leave. This keeps us busy because we must always have in mind what the weather is doing over the country east of the Mississippi. SOME RECENT PUBLICATIONS The International Meteorological Congress at Utrecht Report of the International Meteorological Conference of Directors and of the Meeting of the International Meteorological Committee at Utrecht, September, 1923. Koninklijk Nederlandsch Meteorologisch Instituut, No. 112, Utrecht, Kemink & Zoon, 1924. 8vo, 191 pp., index. English and French. (To be purchased for 2 fl. from Seyffardt's Boekhandel, Gravenstraat 6, Amsterdam; or to be borrowed from the Secretary, Am. Met'l. Soc., or Weather Bureau Library). This publication is a revelation of the number and nature of the meteorological problems requiring international co-operation. Mr. Clayton's summary of the questions to come before this congress (Aug.-Sept. BULLETIN, 1923, pp. 117-118), is a fair representation of the general nature of the published report. A Climatological History of Ohio. W. H. ALEXANDER, 745 pp. Published by the author, 16 E. Broad Street, Columbus, Ohio, 1924. $2.50. "A complete compendium on Ohio weather from the earliest settlement of the state down to the present time, including a number of charts, maps, figures, cuts, half-tones; some historical and topographical |
